year over the 2007-2017 period to reach $107 billion in 2017 in real terms,underpinned mainly by
growth in inbound tourism.Total tourism nights (inbound and domestic)are forecast to increase at
an average annual rate of 1.7%to reach 541 million in 2017.
NBOUND FORECASTS
million in 2009.The Total Inbound Economic Value (TIEV)of inbound tourism (equivalent to tourism
export earnings)is forecast to increase by 2.5%to $24.3 billion in 2008 and by a further 2.9%to $25.1
billion in 2009.
Aviation capacity serving Australia is expected to increase in 2008 and 2009 despite the upward
pressure on aviation costs from increases in oil prices and the associated well publicised reductions
in planned aviation capacity between Japan and Australia.Total aviation seat capacity is expected to
increase by around 3%in 2008 and around 8%in 2009.However,in 2008 this growth is lower than
the combined forecast growth of inbound and outbound tourism passengers.As a result,the average
aviation load factor is expected to increase from 78%in 2007 to 79%in 2008.This is likely to place
upward pressure on airfares and make it increasingly dif .cult to secure seats during peak periods.
These high load factors also mean that special events like World Youth Day may have a reduced
impact on growth in total arrivals (but substantial bene .t to the event location).In 2009,higher
growth in capacity compared to demand is expected to reduce average load factors to 76%.
The number of arrivals to Australia is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 4.4%a year
between 2007 and 2017,to reach 8.7 million,compared with annual average growth rate of 2.7%
between 1997 and 2007.TIEV is forecast to grow at an annual average rate of 4.1%to reach $35.4
billion in real terms in 2017.Substantial investment in the accommodation and other tourism related
sectors will be required to meet this demand from the expanding inbound sector.
The 4.4%average annual growth in international visitor arrivals over the forecast period,2007
to 2017,translates to a cumulative extra 19.6 million arrivals over the next decade.The growth
in visitors is expected to add $82.8 billion in real TIEV over the full decade.The major markets
contributing to the increase in tourism exports are China (up $22.5 billion or 27%of the total gain),
the United States ($12 billion,or 14.5%),while the emerging markets of India and Middle East/
North Africa (or MENA)are also projected to be signi .cant contributors to the growth in the value of
tourism exports over the next 10 years.Considerable investment in tourism supply capacity (such as
in the accommodation and aviation sectors)will be required to meet this demand.
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)almost doubled in the year to June 2008 and increasedby 44%between January and June 2008.The WTI oil price rose from a monthly average of $US67 per
barrel in June 2007 to US$147 per barrel in July 2008,before easing back later in the month.However,
because the US dollar has depreciated against most currencies,oil prices for most consumers have
not doubled.In Australian dollar terms the price of WTI increased by 75%between June 2007 and
June 2008 and 34%between January and June 2008.
the amount of discretionary income available for travel and by increasing the costs of air travel.
The increase in world oil prices has pushed jet fuel prices higher since January 2008.The price of
Singapore Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel has risen by 55%from an average of US$2.53 per gallon in January
to US$3.92 per gallon in June.The average price in 2007 was US$2.03 per gallon.
Sustained higher fuel prices are leading to increases in the cost of air travel.“Fuel surcharges ” have
been a key mechanism for passing on higher fuel costs to travellers in recent years.Increases in the
cost of air travel tend to disadvantage longer-haul markets as airfares are a larger component of the
total cost of travel.As Australia is a medium to long haul destination for most international visitors,
its competitiveness as a tourist destination is eroded when world oil prices increase.Increases in oil
prices also increase the likelihood that airlines will choose to reduce services on routes that are less
pro .table or less able to support increases in airfares.Oil prices are assumed to fall to around US$110
in June 2009.However,if oil prices average US$150 a barrel in the second half of 2008 and through
2009,arrivals would be forecast to fall by 3%in both 2008 and 2009.
US dollar,remains an impediment to growth in inbound tourism.The Australian dollar remains well
above long-term trend levels and is reducing Australia ’s price competitiveness against other travel
destinations and other rival goods and services.
The effect of exchange rate .uctuations is not immediate because,on average,nearly half of visitors
to Australia book their .ights between one and six months before arrival.This means that exchange
rate .uctuations can be a good indicator of changes in arrivals in the short term.Most currencies
remained relatively unchanged against the Australian dollar in the March quarter 2008 compared
to the December quarter 2007.Notable exceptions were the UK pound and the South Korean Won,
which both depreciated by 5%against the Australian dollar.However,data covering the 6 months to
June 2008 show that the currencies of most of our major trading partners have depreciated against
the Australian dollar compared to the previous 6 months.The UK Pound and the South Korean Won
have depreciated the most:by 9%and 12%respectively.This has a negative impact on Australia ’s
competitiveness as a destination and will place downward pressure on arrivals growth in late 2008
and into 2009.
The Australian Trade Weighted Index (the TWI is an index of the Australian dollar against the basket
of currencies of Australia ’s major trading partners)rose 7.1%in the year to June 2008 compared to
the year to June 2007.The current level of the TWI is the highest achieved over the past decade and
arrivals growth is expected to be .at this year,well below the 10-year average growth rate of 2.7%.
Other factors being equal,if the Australian dollar were to remain at current levels or continue to
appreciate against the currencies of inbound source markets,arrivals are likely to fall.There is a large
range of factors that in .uence the number of arrivals to Australia.Nevertheless,the strength of the
Australian dollar does affect the competitiveness of the Australian tourism industry.The Tourism
Forecasting Committee assumes that the Australian dollar will remain high for the rest of 2008 and
early 2009 and will start depreciating to around US$85cents by mid 2010.
and reducing expansion plans.Higher oil prices are also making travel by road more costly.During
early-mid 2008 Qantas and Virgin Blue announced signi .cant changes to their .eet expansion
plans.The airlines are accelerating the retirement of older,less fuel ef .cient aircraft and delaying the
delivery of new aircraft.Services to less pro .table routes are being reduced or cut altogether.
However,increases in incomes and a robust labour market are expected to support modest growth in
domestic trips.The number of domestic trips is forecast to rise by 2%to 75.3 million in 2008 and by
a further 3.5%to 77.9 million in 2009.The average duration of domestic trips is forecast to decline in
2008 and 2009.Despite the expected increases in the cost of some airfares,the competitiveness of air
travel over road travel is expected to increase.Further,increasing pressures on discretionary spending
are also expected to contribute to a decline in the average length of trips.As a result,domestic visitor
nights are forecast to fall by 3%to 279.7 million in 2008 and by 2.7%to 272.1 million in 2009.
The number of domestic tourism trips is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4%between
2007 and 2017.The outlook for domestic visitor nights is less positive,with nights forecast to fall at
an annual average rate of 0.3%each year between 2007 and 2017 to reach 280.4 million.However,
this long-term trend masks a pro .le of strong decreases in visitor nights in 2008 and 2009 followed
by modest growth over the remainder of the period.
Total Domestic Economic Value (TDEV)is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9%a year
between 2007 and 2017 to reach $71.9 billion in real terms.Domestic tourism ’s share of the total
economic value of the Australian tourism market is forecast to decline from 73%in 2007 to 67%in 2017.
likelihood of signi .cant reductions in capacity on these routes.These load factors are receiving
considerable support from the increasing propensity of Australian residents to travel overseas
that has been stimulated by the high value of the Australian dollar and the continued strength of
domestic employment.
Outbound departures are forecast to increase by 9.9%to reach 6.0 million in 2008 before rising a
further 8%to 6.5 million in 2009.Departures are forecast to continue growing at a higher rate than
domestic tourism given the strength of the Australian dollar,the expansion of low cost air capacity to
outbound markets and the overall expansion in international aviation capacity from late 2008.Over
the period from 2007 to 2017,total outbound departures are forecast to grow at an annual average
rate of 5.4%to reach 9.3 million in 2017 (532,000 higher than inbound arrivals).
Australia is currently a net exporter of tourism.The latest Tourism Satellite Accounts (ABS Cat.No.
5249.0)shows that in 2006-07,exports of tourism goods and services exceeded imports of tourism
goods and services by $327 million.The TFC do not forecast the value of tourism imports but since
growth in outbound departures is forecast to exceed inbound arrivals in each of the next ten years,
Australia will probably become a net tourism importer in the period to 2017 after showing a tourism
trade de .cit of $235 million in 2005-06.
(TA),the Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC)was established.Like
its predecessor the Tourism Forecasting Council,the TFC remains
an independent body charged with providing present and potential
tourism investors,industry and government(s)with consensus forecasts
of activity across international domestic and outbound tourism sectors.
Resources for the TFC are provided by Tourism Research Australia (TRA),
a division of TA.
The TFC ’s membership draws on the combined expertise of the private
and public sectors in the tourism and .nance industries.Chaired by
Bernard Salt (KPMG),committee members are from the Australian
Bankers ’ Association,the Australian Standing Committee on Tourism,
the Australian Tourism Export Council,the Department of Resources,
Energy and Tourism,Qantas,Queensland Tourism Industry Council,
Tourism Australia and TTF Australia.
Tourism Australia,the statutory authority responsible for Australian
tourism marketing and research,was formed on 1 July 2004.TA brought
together the responsibilities of the Australian Tourist Commission,the
Bureau of Tourism Research,the Tourism Forecasting Council and See
Australia.Tourism Research Australia provides secretariat support to the
TFC and its sub committee,the TFC Technical Committee.
Daniel Gschwind Queensland Tourism Industry Council
Geoff Buckley Tourism Australia
Greg Hywood Australian Standing Committee on
Tourism
Jane Madden Department of Resources,Energy and
Tourism
Matt Hingerty Australian Tourism Export Council
Mark Dimech TTF Australia
Saul Eslake ANZ Bank,Australian Bankers ’ Association
Tony Webber Qantas Airways Limited
Technical Committee
Andrew Maurer Tourism Research Australia
Ernst Krolke Airport Coordination Australia
Jeff Oughton National Australia Bank
Karen Wales Jones Lang LaSalle
Karl Flowers Tourism Australia
Evelyn Tricardos TTF Australia
Philippe Klee Qantas Airways Limited
Tim Quinn Department of Resources,Energy
and Tourism
The information in this publication is presented
in good faith and on the basis that neither
Tourism Australia,Tourism Research Australia
or the Tourism Forecasting Committee nor
their agents or employees are liable (whether
by reason of error,omission,negligence,lack of
care or otherwise)to any person for any damage
or loss whatsoever which has occurred or may
occur in relation to that person taking or not
taking (as the case may be)action in respect
of any statement,information or advice given
in the publication.Data derived from Tourism
Research Australia surveys are subject to sample
error.Users of the data are advised to consult
the sample error tables contained in Tourism
Research Australia publications or otherwise
available from Tourism Research Australia
before drawing any conclusions or inferences,or
taking any action,based on the data.
©Copyright Tourism Australia 2008
ISBN 0 642 28583 7
Tourism Australia and Tourism Research
Australia permits copies to be made for the
purpose of promoting Australian tourism
provided that Tourism Australia and Tourism
Research Australia are recognised on any
copies as the authors of the Tourism Forecast
Committee Forecast 2008 Issue 1 the Forecast
is reproduced in its current form and a
statement similar to this one is included on any
copy.However,copies may not be made for a
commercial purpose,that is,for sale without
the permission of Tourism Research Australia.
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